A decade after the UK embarked on a rushed referendum that divided the nation and unleashed disorder, a advisory emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and citizens drifted into Brexit and the similar could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering disturbances for which no one is ready.
That is the message from two leading journalists from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a potentially contentious and monumental referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can build support very quickly," the commentator remarked. "It is my view that the political architecture of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have examined the political, economic and societal arguments for any structural alteration in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the issue with a roadshow of public talks that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns all parties, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a yes-no, vague proposition whose results have not been spelled out because then you land with an highly split population where people who have lost are resistant to losing and the those successful lack clarity quite what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim this point is approaching, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the possibility, leaving it unclear when or if there might be a national vote.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements for and against unity has obscured the absence of informed dialogue, noted McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the concept but the actual thinking which could extend past that to make it possible is mostly absent. Much has taken place in scholarly circles but scarcely any government figures or campaigners are willing to participate with even the fundamentals. For instance, what sort of state would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the book, no writer endorses unification or the existing arrangement. Both composes two articles that aim for neutrality in detailing the case for a united Ireland and the argument against, assembling financial and societal statistics, past examples and constitutional models.
Debates encompass identity markers, taxes, health services, pensions, public liabilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The objective is to educate and provoke discussion.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there has not yet occurred a debate," said O’Toole. "Discussion suggests an recognition of the notion that there could be valid points on either side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where the electorate say they prefer unification but refuse greater financial contributions or adopting a new flag to reflect pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin should work out what the offer from Irish nationalism is aside from just stating: 'We want a united Ireland and we value you'," stated the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist considers a referendum in his generation is possible and that it might occur abruptly. "You could have just a mad or a poor or a feckless secretary of state who declares: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have reasonable, justified perspectives, he stated. "One side will win in this matter and the other side will ultimately lose but each side has got important lessons to learn from the alternative positions."
Appeal for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster must participate in the debate, urged O’Toole. "This involves Britain. It's a British issue as much as it is an Irish matter."
